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Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by July 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Event Details
Total Volume: $46.8K
24h Volume: $6
Total Liquidity: $68.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 7/31/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market questions whether Donald Trump will take actions to repeal presidential term limits by July 31, 2025, either through signing legislation or through a Supreme Court ruling that would allow presidents to serve more than two terms. This question has gained renewed attention following Trump's recent comments at the NRA convention where he referenced FDR's four terms and joked about serving a third term.
The key context includes Trump's history of making similar comments about extending presidential terms, often framed as jokes but reflecting a consistent pattern of rhetoric. However, Trump told Time magazine in April 2024 that he does not favor changing the 22nd Amendment. The resolution requires either concrete legislative action or a Supreme Court ruling, making the bar for a "Yes" outcome quite high given constitutional requirements and current political realities.
Analysis
Constitutional and Legal Context
- The 22nd Amendment explicitly limits presidents to two terms
- Changing this would require either:
- Constitutional amendment (requiring 2/3 of both houses + 3/4 of states)
- Supreme Court ruling reinterpreting the amendment
- No serious legislative efforts currently exist to modify term limits
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Yes Outcome (7% Current Market Price)
Requires one of:
- Trump signing legislation repealing term limits
- Supreme Court ruling allowing >2 terms
Key Supporting Factors:
- Trump's repeated comments about serving more terms
- Project 2025 initiative allegedly including term limit changes
- Trump's maximalist view of executive power
Major Obstacles:
- Constitutional amendment process extremely difficult
- No current legislative momentum
- Conservative Supreme Court unlikely to radically reinterpret 22nd Amendment
- Trump's explicit statement against changing amendment
No Outcome (93% Current Market Price)
Supporting Factors:
- High constitutional barriers to change
- Limited timeline (by July 2025)
- Lack of institutional support
- Trump's recent disavowal of changing amendment
- Focus on immediate electoral challenges vs. term limits
Key Factors to Watch
- Trump's campaign rhetoric and policy positions
- Any concrete legislative proposals in Congress
- Supreme Court cases that could affect constitutional interpretation
- Project 2025 implementation details if Trump wins
- Republican Party institutional support for term limit changes
Recent Developments
- May 2024: Trump's NRA convention comments about third term
- April 2024: Trump tells Time he won't change 22nd Amendment
- Growing focus on ballot access challenges rather than term limits
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I assess a 95% probability of this market resolving No. The combination of constitutional barriers, limited timeline, lack of concrete action, and Trump's own statements against changing the amendment make a Yes outcome highly unlikely. While Trump continues to make provocative comments about serving additional terms, there is no indication of serious efforts to change term limits through either legislative or judicial means by July 2025.
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits?
Yes:5.0%
No:95.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10