The prediction market focuses on whether Donald Trump, if elected president in 2024, will withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement within his first 100 days in office (by April 29, 2025). Multiple sources indicate Trump's campaign has explicitly confirmed intentions to withdraw from the agreement, continuing his previous stance from his first term when he initiated a withdrawal in 2019. The market currently shows strong conviction (75.5%) that Trump will pursue withdrawal quickly upon taking office. This assessment appears well-supported by evidence, including statements from Trump's campaign, preparation of draft executive orders by conservative groups, and Trump's consistent opposition to climate agreements. However, the specific timing requirement (within 100 days) and potential political considerations create some uncertainty around the execution timeline.

Background

• The Paris Climate Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change adopted in 2015
• The U.S. previously withdrew under Trump in 2019, then rejoined under Biden in 2021
• A new withdrawal would require formal notification and typically involves a one-year waiting period

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Yes (Withdrawal Announced by April 29, 2025)

Supporting Factors:

• Trump campaign has explicitly confirmed intention to withdraw
• Conservative groups have already drafted executive orders for quick implementation
• Trump's rhetoric on climate change has become more aggressive since his first term
• Project 2025 and Heritage Foundation are preparing comprehensive plans for day one actions

Risks:

• Political backlash could delay timing
• Administrative/legal processes might extend timeline
• Public opinion shows majority support for climate action

No (No Withdrawal by April 29, 2025)

Supporting Factors:

• Complex withdrawal process could extend beyond 100 days
• Potential resistance from moderate Republicans and business interests
• Growing public concern about climate change
• State-level support for clean energy initiatives

Key Factors to Watch

1. Campaign Messaging

• Continued emphasis on fossil fuels vs. climate policy
• Specific timeline commitments
• Response to extreme weather events

2. Political Environment

• Republican party unity on climate issues
• International reaction and pressure
• State-level climate initiatives

3. Implementation Planning

• Progress of Project 2025 preparations
• Development of executive orders
• Legal framework preparation

Recent Developments

• Trump campaign has intensified anti-climate rhetoric
• Conservative groups are actively preparing withdrawal strategy
• Polling shows growing public concern about climate change
• State and local governments strengthening climate initiatives