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Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukrainian forces maintain control of any part of the Kursk Oblast of Russia, through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Ukrainian forces at any point no longer control any territory in the Kursk Oblast, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Control is defined as Ukrainian forces being present and actively holding territory in the Kursk Oblast. The primary resolution source for this market will be maps and reports published by the Institute for the Study of War (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $2.0M
24h Volume: $25.6K
Total Liquidity: $50.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

Based on the available information, it appears unlikely that Ukraine will hold any part of Kursk Oblast through 2024. Recent reports indicate that Russia has been making significant advances in the region and pushing Ukrainian forces back

Analysis

Current Situation Analysis

As of late November 2024, Russian forces have reclaimed about 593 square kilometers in the border area of Kursk Oblast since early October1. The Russian military has also deployed approximately 50,000 troops to the area to regain lost territory. Additionally, North Korean forces have reportedly engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast, further complicating Ukraine's position.

While Ukraine initially made gains in the Kursk region during their surprise offensive in August, capturing around 1,000 square kilometers, the situation has since shifted in Russia's favor. The Russian counteroffensive, which began in September, has been making steady progress.

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Western Support
  • Continued provision of advanced weapons
  • Political will to maintain support levels
  • Impact of aid on Ukrainian offensive capabilities
  1. Russian Response
  • Level of reinforcement in Kursk region
  • Counter-offensive potential
  • Strategic importance of protecting Russian territory
  1. Ukrainian Strategy
  • Focus on other fronts vs. northern operations
  • Capability to launch major offensive operations
  • Resource allocation priorities

Risk Assessment

  • Short-term Risks (Next 30 days)

    • Immediate resolution to "No" if any attempt fails
    • Weather conditions limiting major operations
    • Russian defensive advantages

  • Long-term Risks (Through 2024)

    • Sustained control requirements
    • Resource constraints
    • Multiple opportunities for failure

Prediction

I predict with high confidence (9/10) that Ukraine will NOT maintain control of any part of Kursk Oblast through 2024. The market should resolve to "No" with approximately 90% probability. This assessment is based on: 1. Strong Russian and North Korean counter-offensive 2. Strong Russian defensive positioning 3. Operational challenges of maintaining control 4. Resolution conditions favoring "No" outcome

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?

Yes:10.0%
No:90.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?

Yes
86.5%
No
13.5%
Liquidity: $50.9K
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