OddsChad
← Back to Events

Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024?

This is a market on whether the market capitalization of $USDC (USD Coin) will surpass that of $USDT (Tether) within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data. This market's timeframe spans from January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (inclusive). If, according to the resolution source, $USDC has a greater market cap than $USDT for any day within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the market cap of $USDC is equal to or lower than that of $USDT for every day within this market's timeframe, then this market will resolve to “No”. This market may only resolve to "No" once the December 31 market cap data is available. Note that only the historical data numbers will be used for the comparison of the market caps. If the URLs linking to CoinGecko's Historical Data change at any point, the new URLs will be used instead of the ones initially listed. If the resolution data for any of the relevant days remains unavailable through January 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, CoinMarketCap historical data will be used instead.

Event Details

Total Volume: $288.3K
24h Volume: $949
Total Liquidity: $14.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether USDC will flip USDT in market capitalization during 2024 represents a significant market event in the stablecoin ecosystem. Current data shows USDT maintaining a dominant position with approximately $97 billion market cap compared to USDC's $28 billion, indicating a substantial gap that would need to be closed for a flip to occur. The market dynamics are influenced by multiple factors, including regulatory developments, institutional adoption, and overall crypto market sentiment. While USDC has advantages in terms of transparency and regulatory compliance, USDT's entrenched position in global crypto trading and its recent growth trajectory make a flip in 2024 increasingly unlikely as we approach year-end.

Analysis

Economic Background

Federal Reserve Context

  • Interest rates remain elevated though cuts are expected in 2024
  • Monetary policy decisions impact stablecoin demand and usage
  • Banking sector stability has improved since 2023 crisis

Current Stablecoin Market

  • USDT market cap: ~$97 billion
  • USDC market cap: ~$28 billion
  • Total stablecoin market: ~$137 billion
  • USDT dominance: ~71% of stablecoin market

Outcome Analysis

Scenario 1: USDC Flips USDT (2.3% Probability)

Requirements:

  • Massive shift in institutional preference toward USDC
  • Regulatory action against USDT
  • Significant USDT outflows to USDC
  • Major partnerships/adoption driving USDC growth

Challenges:

  • Limited time remaining in 2024
  • Large gap to close (~$69 billion)
  • USDT's strong network effects
  • Growing USDT market cap trend

Scenario 2: USDT Maintains Dominance (97.8% Probability)

Supporting Factors:

  • Strong current momentum
  • Established trading pairs
  • Global adoption, especially in Asia
  • Recent growth in market cap
  • Limited time for major market shifts

Key Factors to Watch

Regulatory Developments

  • Global stablecoin regulations
  • SEC actions and policies
  • International regulatory frameworks

Market Indicators

  • Trading volumes
  • Exchange adoption
  • Institutional flows
  • Geographic distribution

Technical Considerations

  • Integration with payment systems
  • Cross-chain capabilities
  • Settlement efficiency

Recent Developments

  • USDT market cap reached new highs
  • Increased stablecoin transaction volumes
  • Growing institutional adoption of stablecoins
  • Enhanced regulatory clarity in major markets

Prediction

Based on comprehensive analysis, I predict with high confidence that USDC will not flip USDT in market cap during 2024. The current gap is too substantial to overcome in the remaining time, and USDT's growth trajectory remains strong. I estimate a 98% probability that USDT maintains its lead, with only a 2% chance of USDC achieving a flip in the unlikely event of major market disruption or regulatory intervention.

Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024?

Yes:2.0%
No:98.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024?

Yes
1.9%
No
98.1%
Liquidity: $14.9K
Trade →