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Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $872.8K
24h Volume: $2
Total Liquidity: $8.1K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/30/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The potential rescheduling of marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III represents a significant shift in federal drug policy. The DEA is currently reviewing an HHS recommendation to reschedule marijuana, with a hearing scheduled for December 2, 2024. This timeline, combined with the political sensitivity of the issue during an election year, makes rescheduling by December 31, 2024 unlikely.
The market's current pricing (94.5% No, 5.5% Yes) appears well-calibrated to the reality of the regulatory timeline and political dynamics. While there is strong momentum toward rescheduling, including formal DOJ proposed rules and broad public support, the December hearing date leaves extremely limited time for the DEA to complete its review process and implement changes before year-end.
Analysis
Background
Regulatory Status
- Marijuana currently classified as Schedule I drug (highest restriction level)
- HHS recommended rescheduling to Schedule III in August 2023
- DOJ submitted formal proposed rules for rescheduling
- DEA has scheduled hearing for December 2, 2024
Political Context
- 70% public support for legalization according to Gallup polls
- 38 states have legalized medical marijuana
- Election year politics may impact timing
- Bipartisan congressional interest but also opposition
Analysis of Outcomes
Yes (5.5% probability)
Supporting Factors
- Strong HHS recommendation
- DOJ proposed rules submitted
- Broad public support
- State-level momentum
Challenges
- December 2 hearing date
- Limited time for post-hearing process
- Election year complications
- Opposition from some lawmakers
No (94.5% probability)
Supporting Factors
- Late hearing date leaves minimal time
- Standard regulatory process requires:
- Public comment period
- Response to comments
- Final rule drafting
- Implementation period
- Historical precedent of slow federal drug policy changes
- Political sensitivity during election
Key Factors to Watch
- Any changes to hearing date
- Statements from DEA officials
- Congressional actions/pressure
- Election dynamics
- Industry/public response to hearing
Recent Developments
- DEA announced December 2 hearing date
- Over 40,000 public comments received
- Ongoing state legalization efforts
- Growing business pressure for reform
Prediction
I predict marijuana will NOT be rescheduled by December 31, 2024 with 95% confidence. While rescheduling appears likely eventually, the December 2 hearing date makes completion by year-end virtually impossible given standard regulatory timelines. The 5% probability for "Yes" reflects remote possibility of extraordinary expedition of the process.
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
Yes:5.0%
No:95.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-schedules-hearing-on-marijuana-rescheduling-proposal-delaying-final-rule/
- https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-submits-proposed-regulation-reschedule-marijuana
- https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/01/biden-marijuana-fda-scheduling-fears-sklamberg-00132890
- https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/05/21/2024-11137/schedules-of-controlled-substances-rescheduling-of-marijuana