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World Chess Championship 2024 Winner

The 2024 World Chess Championship is scheduled to take place November 25 - December 13. You can read more about this event here: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-chess-world-championship This market will resolve to "Ding" if Ding Liren wins the World Chess Championship 2024. This market will resolve to "Gukesh" if Gukesh Dommaraju wins the World Chess Championship 2024. If this event is cancelled, or its start is otherwise delayed beyond December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from the 2024 US Chess Championship, including footage from the tournament (which will be streamed here: chess.com/events/2024-us-chess-championship), however, a consensus of other credible sources may be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $1.2M
24h Volume: $81.1K
Total Liquidity: $109.5K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/13/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The 2024 World Chess Championship match between reigning champion Ding Liren and challenger Gukesh D will be a historic encounter between two elite players at very different stages of their careers. Gukesh, at just 17 years old, earned his spot by winning the 2024 Candidates Tournament, while Ding has struggled with health and competitive form since winning the title in 2023. The markets currently heavily favor Gukesh (70.5%) over Ding (29.5%), reflecting both Gukesh's impressive Candidates victory and ongoing concerns about Ding's readiness. Key factors include Ding's extended absence from competitive play in 2023 due to health issues, contrasted with Gukesh's momentum and recent strong performances.

Analysis

Analysis of 2024 World Chess Championship

Current Player Status

Ding Liren

  • Reigning World Champion since 2023
  • Limited competitive play since winning title
  • Reported health and psychological challenges
  • Recently expressed feeling "much better" but still showing uncertainty about form
  • Participated in training to improve preparation techniques

Gukesh D

  • Won 2024 Candidates Tournament
  • Strong recent tournament results
  • Momentum and confidence from qualifying victories
  • At 17, would be youngest World Champion if victorious
  • Active competitive schedule maintaining sharp form

Key Factors Influencing Outcome

Form and Preparation

  • Ding's extended absence from competition raises concerns about match readiness
  • Gukesh's active tournament schedule provides competitive advantage
  • Both players working with advanced preparation tools and techniques

Psychological Elements

  • Ding has acknowledged struggling with pressure and media attention
  • Gukesh shows remarkable composure for his age
  • Championship experience favors Ding despite recent struggles

Tournament Context

  • Match scheduled for late 2024
  • Classical time format favors precise technical play
  • Venue and specific conditions yet to be announced

Recent Developments

  • Gukesh's decisive Candidates victory demonstrates readiness for championship level
  • Ding showing signs of recovery and renewed focus on preparation
  • Market sentiment strongly favoring Gukesh based on recent performance

Considerations for Traders

  • Monitor Ding's tournament performances leading up to championship
  • Watch for signs of Gukesh maintaining momentum
  • Consider potential impact of age/experience differential
  • Pay attention to pre-match preparation reports

Prediction

Based on current evidence, I assess Gukesh as the likely winner but with lower confidence than current market prices suggest. While Gukesh's recent form is impressive, Ding's championship experience and potential return to form make this a closer match than markets indicate. I estimate Gukesh's winning chances at 60% vs Ding at 40%.

World Chess Championship 2024 Winner

Ding:40.0%
Gukesh:60.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

World Chess Championship 2024 Winner

Yes
27.5%
No
72.5%
Liquidity: $109.5K
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